Once again we say good bye to one year and hello to a new one. It's always common at the end of December to see lists of good and bad things that have happened over the year then ending, and a similar list of projections for the upcoming year. I'd like to do this a slightly different way. The first difference is that I don't want to talk about the year just ending. The second difference is that while I'll talk about some technologies with which you're probably already familiar, I want to give more of my attention on upcoming trends that are getting less attention. My focus will be on technology. I've given up on making sports predictions … and any ones I might make on entertainment would be laughable at best.
Since we're entering 2018, let's talk about 18 things to expect in technology this coming year: eight trends that you may well have heard about, and ten more that may be less familiar. In each case, I'll share with you the thoughts of others who focus on each area. Let's start with eight more familiar ones:
#1: Non-financial blockchain applications
Unless you've been vacationing on a remote Pacific island, you've probably heard about Bitcoin, and you may also have heard about some of the related financial products based upon a technology called blockchain. What you might not have heard is that blockchain is being used to develop a whole range of non-financial applications.
There's a very good chance that Bitcoin is going to go the way of tulips in 17th century Holland. The bubble will burst and the price of Bitcoin will crash, just as tulips did. It's unclear whether Bitcoin and related financial products based upon blockchain will survive. On the other hand, it looks as though the non-financial applications have a very bright future. I suggest you read Elena Mesropyan, who has written about 30 non-financial applications of blockchain technology.
#2: AI/AR/VR applications
There have been lots of new developments in artificial intelligence, augmented reality, and virtual reality. Inventor and product architect George Krasadakis sees some interesting connections between them. Likewise, the Gartner Group foresees these various technologies coming together to form a digital mesh that will provide new forms of support for digital businesses.
#3 IoT becomes BIot
Devices and products you use every day, including your TV, thermostat, even refrigerator, now increasingly now include connections to the Internet. Prognosticators at Fortune magazine now see a link between IoT and non-financial applications of blockchain (trend #1 above) to create BIot (blockchain Internet of things).
#4: Crispr CAS9
You've very likely heard about Crispr CAS9, the revolutionary new gene editing technology which offers the promise, and peril, of eliminating genetic defects. Even though the technology is still quite young, real life applications are presently being developed. One very interesting one, reported in Digital Trends, is the application of Crispr to treat ALS (Lou Gehrig's Disease), hitherto untreatable.
#5: 3D Printing
The 3D printing industry continues to move from hobbyist and experimental applications to more mainstream ones. 3D Print magazine suggests some emerging trends in the technology for 2018
#6: Microbiome
Scientists continue to discover more ways in which the microbiome is critical to health. At the same time, there is increasing interest personalized diet and medicine. Tech Crunch magazine sees connections between the two.
#7: Open source software
Open source software applications continue to proliferate. Opensource.com forecasts a number of important developments continuing into 2018.
#8: Biofuels
Biofuels have long been seen as a potential alternative to oil and gas. Unfortunately, using corn as a feedstock for ethanol hasn't worked out as planned, creating a whole series of problems along the way. Scientists have gone back to the drawing boards to identify better biofuel feedstocks. While biofuels reduce the use of oil and gas, they do still create greenhouse gases. BP, however, believes it has identified a biofuel feedstock in Brazil with a better greenhouse gas profile.
Ten Possibly Less Familiar Technology Trends
Now let's consider ten tech trends that you might not be familiar with.
#1: Transparent solar
Solar energy is becoming an increasingly mature industry, and its share of energy production is growing rapidly. Most everyone has seen a solar panel or a solar farm, but there are some less familiar solar technologies that are emerging. One of them is called "transparent solar". Singularityhub sees this as an emerging technology in 2018.
#2: Floating wind farms
Likewise, most everyone has seen a wind farm. These farms provide cost effective clean energy. So why aren't there a lot more of them? The simple answer: virtually no one wants to have a wind farm in his or her backyard. One of the solutions to that is to put wind farms out of sight. Singularityhub reports on a strategy to get your typical wind farm out of sight – floating wind farms.
#3: African technological leap-frogging
We in the developed world often have mental images of Africa as extremely poor and completely backward in technology. While Africa is comparatively poor, it isn't as technologically backward as we envision. In fact, there are signs that Africans are leapfrogging from backwardness to state of the art applications, all in a single bound. Disruptionhub offers some great examples.
#4: Graphene based batteries
Tesla and others have ushered in a new world of electric vehicles and battery storage, promising to revolutionize several industries. The key ingredient in that revolution has been the development of lithium ion battery technology. But what if there is an even better technology than lithium ion? An emerging candidate is graphene based batteries. Disruptionhub offers some interesting insights into this emerging technology.
#5: Technology innovation hubs outside the USA
Disruptionhub pointed out that there are now some 300 innovation centers spread throughout Africa. They're likely to spawn some very interesting technologies, and companies, but I doubt many people in Silicon Valley are very worried about them. But they may be a little concerned about another emerging trend – Silicon Valley style hubs in major developed countries outside the USA. One example is Station F in Paris. Expect to see some interesting things coming from these emerging hubs.
#6: Developing world alternative energy projects
The developed world is making pretty good progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but the developing world is a significant question mark. The good news is, there are a number of important alternative energy projects underway in the developing world. Mashable reports on a number of them. As with most new technology, many of them will probably not be commercialized, but at least a few may produce great results.
#7: Electric trucks
The emergence of all electric automobiles is now an old story, but what about
trucks? Trucks pose some significant challenges not present in automobiles. Nevertheless, Inside Climate News reports on some important new developments are emerging, pointing towards a future with lots of electric trucks.
#8: Impact investing
In the past, donors to charities have never expected to see their contributions returned to them. Increasingly, that is no longer true. The concept of "impact investing" has emerged. It's now going from fringe to mainstream.
In impact investing, instead of making a financial gift to a charity, the donor invests the money in a company that will provide a product or service that substitutes for the traditional charitable activity. As an example, the donors might invest in a power plant that will focus on providing power to the underserved in a developing world country. The company is expected to make money, and the power it produces will provide real benefits to the customers.
In many cases, the investor is a traditional charity. The money it invests will then eventually be returned to the charity, and the charity can then use the money for additional chartiable purposes.
Why I am including this in the list? It's because many of the companies receiving impact investments utilize technology to solve social problems.
The Global Impact Investing Network projects dramatic growth in the field during 2018. Here's a link to their report.
#9: Quantum computing
Quantum computing is beginning to move from the purely conceptual stage to real life applications. Technology Review suggests that real life quantum computers will soon be emerging.
#10: Livestreaming
Video streaming has been around the Internet for several years. It now appears to be emerging as a serious technology. Neil Patel offers thoughts on why it's an important technology to watch in 2018
Final Thoughts
Will all of these things happen in 2018? Well, if they do, the most surprised person of all will be me. After all, venture capitalists and angel investors never expect more than a fraction of the companies they invest in to be successful. But they do expect at least a certain percentage of their investments to provide big payoffs. Likewise, looking at the list above, I expect at least of few of these be major winners in 2018.
And I also expect there will be some winning technologies in 2018 that aren't on the list. You and I may not even know they exist. They're still under development in someone's lab. But that's the nature of technology. There's always an opportunity for surprise and wonder.
Happy New Year. May 2018 bring blessings to you, your friends and co-workers, and your loved ones; and may it be filled with surprise and wonder.
