Unless you've seen more than enough Presidential tweets and are observing a self-imposed news blackout, there's a good chance you've heard the absolutely amazing news that scientists have discovered a colony – make that a supercolony – of 1.5 million Adelie penguins on an island off the Antarctic Peninsula.
Until this amazing discovery, the story line for the Adelie penguins, as well as other penguins such as the Emperors, has been pretty grim.
This discovery, first reported in Nature, suggests that the population of Adelie penguins, previously believed to be declining for the past 40 years, may be in better shape than anyone thought. It's the kind of feel good story you sometimes hear at the end of the news broadcast – a little bit of sunshine amidst storm clouds.
The news was completely unexpected. But somewhat lost in the headlines – and the story itself - are six very interesting, and unexpected, details. And these unexpected things may actually be the real story.
Unexpected detail #1: there are still unexplored places
Upon hearing about the discovery of 1.5 million Adelie penguins, your reaction, as well as that of lots of people was, how come nobody ever visited Danger Island and checked on the penguins, especially if their numbers are declining? The island has been known for a long time so why didn't anyone visit?
It's a good question, but one pretty easily answered when you consider what the area around the Antarctic Peninsula is like. Pretty treacherous! Raging storms and tumultuous seas, even in the comparatively calm Southern Hemisphere summertime. That's true for every part of the Antarctic Peninsula, but some places are particularly challenging. Danger Island really deserves its name. Taking a ship apparently is particularly difficult.
Then there is the question of getting funding to go and study the penguins. Research dollars are limited … and apparently until now, studying the Danger Island penguins simply hasn't been a high enough priority.
Unexpected detail #2: East Antarctic ice growing
As previously mentioned, all of the available evidence gathered on Adelie Penguins for some 40 years showed the population declining. One of the key reasons cited for the decline – as well as the declines in other species - was the shrinkage of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The increase in temperatures, a byproduct of global climate change, has been cited as the culprit. What has largely been overlooked as that while the West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk a good deal over that time, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet has grown commensurately.
So how is it that if global warming is causing ice to melt in West Antarctica, the ice is expanding on the other side of the continent? Scientists aren't completely sure why the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is growing … but it has been.
Some people have argued that the growth in the East Antarctic ice sheet must mean that greenhouse gases aren't really causing global warming. But other research suggests that the East Antarctic ice sheet has a history of instability and that we should still be concerned - very concerned. Irrespective of that, Danger Island is in the West Antarctic, so it's smack in the middle of the area where the ice is presently receding … and creating problems for the Adelie penguins.
Unexpected detail #3: Drones and neural networks
So just how did scientists determine there are 751,527 pairs of Adelie Penguins on Danger Island? They didn't say, they're roughly 1.5 million penguins, they provided a precise number. Did someone walk around with a clip board and count them?
Not exactly. How they did it was unexpected … but very interesting. They did it using drones equipped with cameras.
Drones equipped with cameras can generate a huge number of images – literally every square inch of the island, so every Adelie penguin was captured on film by those drones.
Which leaves the unimaginable task of counting every one of those penguins captured on film.
But the expedition scientists utilized an unexpected tool to accomplish the task – neural networks. Thus, by combining drones and neural networks, it was possible to get a comprehensive count of the the Adelie Penguins on Danger Island
Unexpected detail #4: 1960's data
So the scientists were able to get a pretty accurate idea of the number of penguins on Danger Island today. One and a half million Adelie Penguins is a large number … but is it increasing, decreasing or stable over time? If there were 3.0 million Adelies on the island 50 years ago, scientists would be very concerned, as that would suggest that Adelies are declining there, just as they are in every other previously known habitat for Adelies.
Or maybe there were only about one million Adelie penguins on Danger Island in the past, meaning that the population has grown significantly. The scientists would really have to rethink the situation in that case.
In fact, the evidence suggests that the Adelie population in the Danger Islands is pretty stable. The reason scientists know this is because they went back and looked at early satellite imagery from some 50 years ago. Apparently they found the population density looked comparable to the recently generated images.
Satellites have collected huge amounts of data over the past 50 years. Using some of these new analytical techniques, it may be possible to re-examine old photographic evidence to gain a better understanding of how things are changing. That concept could be applied all over the world.
Unexpected detail #5: Ray Dalio
Not only is the research to enumerate the Adelie population important, it's expensive … very expensive!
Which brings up the fifth unexpected aspect of the story: it was paid for with a grant from Dalio Philanthropies. The benefactor of Dalio Philanthropies is Ray Dalio, founder and head of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's foremost hedge funds. Dalio is a member of the billionaire's club, but he has had the vision to underwrite a great deal of research, particularly of the world's oceans.
Unexpected detail #6: An expansion of marine protection areas
Another unexpected aspect of this story is that it may help spur expansion of marine protection areas in the Southern Ocean. Ever since first European explorers found Antarctica, there's been a major push to develop it economically. The 19th and early 20th centuries saw significant whaling and fishing in the area. It's also been determined that Antarctica has tremendous reserves of oil and gas, as well as other minerals.
But unlike other places, Antarctica's mineral and other reserves have largely gone undeveloped because of the risks to the environment. That's good, but it still doesn't ensure that wildlife will be preserved.
The incredible and unusual beauty of the Antarctic has not gone unnoticed. Every year, more and more people are visiting, putting increasing pressure on the environment. Those pressures are one of the reasons given for declining penguin populations in other parts of the Antarctic Peninsula.
There are already lots of rules and regulations in place to help protect the Antarctic environment. For example, ships with more than 500 aboard cannot permit passengers to dis-embark and explore the area. If you want to get up close with the wildlife, you must travel on small ships.
However, even these extensive, existing marine protections, in short, may be insufficient. So one of the unexpected benefits of the Danger Island penguin discovery may be to strengthen efforts to create more marine protection areas in the Antarctic. It may make it more difficult to visit Antarctica, but that may be necessary to protect the environment.
Back to the Expected
So the discovery of the Danger Island Adelie penguins is both great … and unexpected. But the unexpected, positive news may still be only temporary, and entirely predictable. After all, back in 2014 it was predicted that "global populations will actually rise, at least initially, especially in the colonies found on the southernmost Ross Sea. Currently, colonies off the western coast are on the rise thanks to the break-up of large glaciers in the area. But the population increase is only going to be temporary, according to researcher Stephanie Jenouvrier, and colonies will start seeing a decline in numbers starting in 2040. By 2080, the researchers say all 45 colonies will see a decrease and, by 2100, approximately two-third of the 45 colonies currently present will be reduced by 50 percent."
Good news today, but the long term message is the same: either climate change is tamed, and temperatures stabilize, or penguins … including Adelie penguins … even the 1.5 previously unknown ones in the Danger Islands … will become casualties.
