"The answer my friend is blowin' in the wind/The answer is blowin' in the wind". So sang balladeer Bob Dylan, more than 50 years ago, when he first released his milestone record "Blowin' in the Wind".
Now the wind that Dylan wrote about could provide a different sort of answer – an important, but seemingly unexpected, role in both reducing greenhouse gases, as well as moving the country towards greater energy independence.
When it comes to renewable energy, most of the attention seems to go to solar power. That may be because just about anyone can install a solar panel on his or her rooftop – and more and more people and businesses are doing just that. On the other hand, it's not just a little harder … IT'S A LOT HARDER … to install a wind turbine on your property. But based upon the Wind Vision report, wind power could provide up to 35% of total USA electric power by 2050, a mere 32 years from now.
But if that's true, it could mean the USA in 2050 would have only about 10 – 15% of its power coming from fossil fuel sources! Sounds unbelievable, so let me show you how I figured that:
#1: The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has estimated that 80% of USA power could be generated by renewables by 2050.
#2: But 50% of that 80% would come from solar and wind combined
#3: So if the Wind Vision report's estimate of 35% from wind power alone, the NREL estimate of 50% from wind and solar combined is probably underestimated. In fact, the combined wind and solar should possibly be as much as 60 to 70%.
#4: Then if you add in nuclear power – currently about 9% of the total – as well as other sources such as biomass, the non-fossil fuel portion could definitely get up to 85% to 90+%!
Admittedly, these are projections, subject to lots of variables. But at the beginning of the 21st century, no one would have predicted the current installed base of wind and solar, as well as the reduction in coal.
Solar technology has greatly improved in the past 20 years. What lots of people don't realize is how much wind has improved, too. In fact, the cost of wind power generation has decreased by 90% since the 1980's. It could decrease further, given the newer technology of larger blades, for example. The newest wind power technology is replacing wind installations done a generation ago.
But skeptics will properly note that wind power is presently only about 5% of total electric generation. How could it possibly grow to 35% in just 32 years – a 700% increase at least? And at present, it's really economically viable in only 39 states.
Let me offer five reasons why:
#1: It's attractive even to climate change skeptics
Unfortunately, lots of Americans are skeptical about climate change. I'm still not sure why, but they are. They simply don't respond to dire warnings about what's already happening to the world's climate, much less what could happen.
But the funny thing is, when it comes to solar and wind power, you don't have to believe in climate change to believe that it's a great thing. To see why that's true for wind power, all you have to do is visit a place like Sweetwater, Texas, smack in the middle of wind power country.
Sweetwater is the seat of Nolan County, a rural area that's seen its share of hard times. Almost three quarters of voters went for Donald Trump in 2016. Predictably, you won't see lots of people crusading to reduce greenhouse gases – in fact, there's a fair amount of skepticism that the problem even exists. But even though climate change skepticism pervades the air, you will see lots of state of the art wind farms, and lots of support for wind power. Huh?
You see, wind power has had a hugely positive impact on the local economy. The tax assessor reports that the local tax base a few years ago was only about $ 500 million. Now it's closer to $ 2.8 billion. Quintupling the local tax base means a LOT MORE MONEY for governmental services, even if you have a good sized reduction in local tax rates. The associated rise in local tax receipts has very positively affected local people.
As you might expect, there's a LOT of support for wind power in Sweetwater and the rest of Nolan County, Texas. Just don't talk about climate change to the average person, as they may very well be skeptical. The point is, they may be skeptical of climate change, but they aren't the least bit skeptical about wind power, and the positive impact it's having on the economy.
A possible lesson? Liberal and Progressive America, stop preaching the doom and gloom of climate change, but do everything you can to promote the policies that both improve the economy and also reduce greenhouse gases. Wind power is one of the great ways to do that ... and the place to do it is locally, in places like Sweetwater.
Which leads to the second lesson.
#2: It offers economic development for rural America
As I said, people in Sweetwater don't generally give a rip about climate change. But they love wind power because of the positive impact it's had on the economy. The same can be said for other rural areas in the country. Among the benefits?
Jobs. Lots of jobs. To help fill demand for trained wind power technicians, the local community college in Sweetwater, TX has created one and two year programs. Graduates get good paying jobs, certainly better than what else is available. The Department of Energy estimates that by 2050, there could be as many as 600,000 jobs in wind power in America. The second fastest growing job category today in the USA is wind power technician.
Donald Trump promised that there would be a big increase in coal mining employment in the USA. So far, coal employment has barely budged. But even if it did, it probably wouldn't be meaningful because when Trump took office, only a little over 50,000 people in the entire country worked in coal mines.
But people in places like Sweetwater like wind power for more than jobs. For land owners, there are royalties. A land owner can collect as much as $ 1,000/month for renting space for just one wind mill. If you own land, lease out enough space for wind turbines and you and your family could have a major change in economic fortune. Your toughest job might be depositing your monthly royalty check in the bank!
Not only that, switching to wind power reduces demand for water. In very dry places like West Texas, reducing demand for water is certainly good.
And there could be a lot more Sweetwater's around the USA. What lot's of people don't realize is that 97% of the USA landmass is in rural counties like Nolan County, Texas. Sixty million people live in these counties. Many people don't like to look at wind mills, but there are an awful lot of places in rural America that can "hide" wind mills, and as much as 19% of the population could gain benefits the way Sweetwater has.
#3: It can provide lower electric prices
But there are even more benefits, one of which is lower electric utility prices. The Wind Vision authors estimate that if wind power is built out as projected by 2050, consumers will save $ 280 billion on their electric utility bills. Even the most diehard skeptic of climate change isn't going to turn down those savings! South Dakota reportedly already generates more than 30% of its power from wind. The switch to wind has dramatically reduced electric bills – more than a billion dollar reduction.
#4: The Chinese don't dominate the industry
One of the things that concerns people about solar is Chinese dominance in the industry. The Chinese are involved in wind power, but they do not dominate the industry. In fact, of the top ten wind power suppliers, only three are Chinese. Three are German. The world leader – a company called Vestas – is Danish. The USA is represented in the top 10 by General Electric.
#5: It can reduce greenhouse gases in a quiet way
So there's a lot to like about wind power, AND there's still that other benefit – it reduces greenhouse gas. Getting wind turbines to generate 35% of USA electric power by 2050 will have a hugely positive benefit on greenhouse gas emissions. For those of us who believe greenhouse gas emissions are a huge problem, that's a fantastic future headline. For climate skeptics, there's still the benefit of jobs, cheaper power, reduction in water use, economic growth, and royalty checks.
For people who love coal, unfortunately, it's likely "still a lump of coal in the Christmas stocking".
Moving Forward
Is wind power a panacea? Absolutely not! And there's no assurance we'll achieve the target of generating 35% of power from wind by 2050. But the technology is now available. And the case has been made that a high percentage of power can come from wind. In fact, as previously mentioned, South Dakota already generates some 30% of its power from wind, and the lights aren't flickering. The other 49 states should take notice.
More importantly, the economics point to a bright future.
But possibly the most important thing to consider is that there is a large group of people who, at least accordingly to the conventional wisdom, shouldn't believe in wind power. Except that they don't just accept it, THEY LOVE IT!
Which again makes the point that people make decisions for their reasons, not yours or mine. They may be climate change skeptics … and we may NEVER change their minds on that … but they can be persuaded to do things you'd never expect they would, if only we present a case that they perceive is compelling – for their reasons, not ours. The lesson? Show climate change skeptics how they personally can benefit from things like wind and solar power and SHUT UP ABOUT HOW THE WEATHER IS CHANGING!
So Bob Dylan was right, if for a different reason: "The answer my friend, is blowin' in the wind/The answer is blowin' in the wind."
